8 Thoughts on the 2018 Vancouver Civic Election

Okay so the dust has mostly settled from the 2018 Vancouver Civic election, and there are a few thoughts I would like to share. This was the first campaign in some time that I wasn't hyper involved as a partisan staffer, so it honestly felt a little odd being on the other side of all the phone calls and solicitations. Below are eight randomly ordered observations:

1) Holy Shit the NPA did way better than anyone was expecting. The NPA had a messy campaign, but despite this, still managed to elect five councillors and come within a thousand votes of snagging the Mayor's seat. With Hector Bremner's nomination disqualification leading him to form his own party that siphoned votes away from the NPA, and former Harper era Conservative MP Wei Young running with Coalition Vancouver, many believed Vancouver's civic right wing had hopelessly fractured itself and stood little chance of electoral success. Combined with the assumption that outrage about the costs of housing would be the defining issue on voters minds, many concluded the NPA was in for a seriously rough ride. (The Georgia Straight's Charlie Smith went so far as to write on October 10th "...it's highly unlikely that the NPA will take control of city council." and ".....the public should expect a progressive landslide on October 20." A few days later, to his credit, he wrote an apology). The fact the NPA did as well as they did despite having significant challenges to overcome is stunning, and should remind everyone that a) No one really knows what will happen on election day and b) You've got to work really really hard and take nothing for granted.

2) To ward or not to ward? This question seems to pop up perennially in Vancouver's post - civic election analysis. I honestly find it kind of boring and wonkish and I think voters would as well -- besides, Vancouverites rejected this option when they had the chance to switch back in 2004. The basic idea is that Wards ensure better neighbourhood representation. They are already in use in every other major city in Canada. Renters and residents of the DTES have long felt forgotten or neglected by Vancouver's city council; electing councillors based on a neighbourhood ward system would probably help to improve this.

3) Turnout was abysmal. The City of Vancouver reported 176,744 votes cast in the 2018 election compared with 181,707 in 2014. Meaning nearly five thousand fewer people cast ballots in the 2018 election than they did four years ago, making turnout a pathetic 39%. Consider that the Lower Mainland's population is estimated to grow by about 30,000 people a year, and that Vancouver's population data show's nearly 30,000 new residents arrived between the years 2011 & 2016, it is safe to assume that there were thousands more eligible voters in Vancouver's 2018 election than there were in 2014 due to population growth. Despite this, raw vote turnout still declined. This is depressing.

After the election was over, I went for lunch with a good friend of mine who, like myself, is a recovering political junkie. He told me that he'd heard about a survey done by Simon Fraser University that found over 40% of respondents agreed with the sentiment "Democracy doesn't work in BC". I wish I had a source to share for this stat, but I don't (yet, I will update if I can). Regardless of whether I can site a specific source for this, the pathetic turnout numbers make it pretty clear there is a crisis of legitimacy in our civic governance.

4) Why don't people care more about the housing crisis? It's a painful reality for those frustrated by the high cost of housing in Vancouver that this issue has persisted at crisis levels for as long as it has, yet Vancouverites consistently choose to elect politicians who will make the problem worse (often, while promising to make it better). One could argue that despite the severity of the housing crisis, Vancouver voters only elected one or two councillors who genuinely placed housing solutions at the heart of their campaign. Fortunately, voters saw through the blatant dishonestly of Hector Bremner's "Fix Housing" nonsense, but still somehow sent five of the developer friendly NPA candidates to council chambers, more than any other party. This is extremely upsetting for anyone suffering as a result of the high cost of housing.

5) For the love of god progressives, please stop bickering among yourselves and keep your eyes on the prize. Who is and is not considered a genuine "progressive" in terms of Vancouver's civic political scene is a highly debated question. It is not hard to see there are too many cooks in this kitchen and they are spoiling the proverbial broth and everyone's rent is way too high as a result. Vision Vancouer, COPE, OneCity, the Greens and lord knows whoever else all try to lay claim to the title of "progressive" leaving left leaning voters hopelessly splintered and confused in deciding whom to support. For all of Vision's failures, it's electoral success and staying power can be credited to the wide appeal of its brand and identity as a big tent coalition organization. With Vision gone and now five NPA councillors elected, the need is clear for lefties to put many of the petty differences of the past aside in order to focus on advancing shared priorities. Efforts must be made to consolidate the political organizations that occupy Vancouver's left wing in order to better prepare them to fight again in 2022

6) Holy shit, Burnaby's King Derek Corrigan was de-throned and an opposition councillor was elected for the first time in over a decade. This will likely send shockwaves throughout the NDP establishment in Metro Vancouver. Corrigan's defeat came as a consequence of a deeply unpopular Metrotown neighbourhood redevelopment plan that is seeing affordable housing replaced by high cost condos and leaving longtime area residents with no where to go. Burnaby voters punished Corrigan for his perceived heartlessness and failure to address the needs of those displaced by the plan. The issue of the Metrotown demovictions also dogged former Burnaby South MP Kennedy Stewart throughout his campaign to become Vancouver's next Mayor, likely contributing to his very narrow margin of victory. It seems safe to say that many well established NDP campaigners underestimated the public anger as a result of the unpopular plan. In my view this result, more than any other from October 20th, reflects genuine public anger over the mismanagement of housing issues and will send a strong message to BC's young provincial government.

7) Council so WHITE. There are a number of candidates who's loss I am morning (if you look at my picks, you'll see most of my choices didn't do so well) but the ones who sting the most are OneCity's Brandon Yan and COPE's Diana Day, both of whom ran strong, competitive campaigns that came heartbreakingly close to success. The racial make up of council, being all white folk save one, and the close-but-no-cigar finish of these two POC candidates is striking and leaves me reflecting on white privilege and the racism of the electorate. Diana Day specifically has run a number of times and finished just under the line -- she would have been Vancouver's first female indigenous school trustee. It's hard not to be disappointed that more people didn't understand why her candidacy was important. Despite thinking of ourselves as a city of latte-sipping-yoga-pants-wearing-enlightened-progressives, racism still defines a lot of of our politics. Read Sunny Dhillon's account of why he quit the Globe and Mail over its coverage of the Vancouver election for more on this.

8) Vision is gone and COPE is Back! If I called the NPA's campaign a "mess" earlier, then Vision's was nothing short of a total disaster, with the party having to abandon its mayoral and one of its council candidates mid-campaign. The only Vision candidate to earn election was long time school trustee Allan Wong, who crossed the floor from COPE to join Vision in 2013. By contrast, COPE managed to get 4 of its candidates elected, making this the best campaign COPE has seen in at least 8 years. I'm sure Vision mostly knew the writing was on the wall when their standard bearer Gregor Robertson, along with many of their long time incumbents, decided not to run again. The question in front of them now is whether they have anything left to rebuild from, and (who's up for some wild baseless speculation?) whether Allan Wong won't be tempted to rejoin his old team at some point over the next four years.

Okay so those are my thoughts.

The council is fairly split, and despite how bad things have gotten with our housing market, we very nearly handed total control of our city government to a group of greedy real estate developers. We should probably all take a moment to have a long hard think about why that is.

Thanks for reading.